The government’s latest failings and the relative deterioration of the general political and economic climate, as recorded in this month’s political barometer, clearly do not benefit the government’s standing, nor of course its electoral support. According to Public Issue’s monthly vote estimate (Figure 1), the voting intention for New Democracy remains unchanged in November (27%), while electoral support for the other government partner has dropped slightly (6%, -1%). In contrast, a sizeable segment of the electorate is increasingly turning to the main opposition party, pinning on the latter their hopes for a change in the government policy being implemented. SYRIZA’s voter support, following a decline in October, shows a resurgence in November (+3%) to reach 38.5%
Conclusions based on their social legitimization over the past eight years (2007-2014)
The Memorandum has further exacerbated the previously existing, very deep crisis of the delegitimization of representative institutions, banks and the news media. At the same time, the social polarization that has come about is distinctly reflected by the parallel growth of support within Greek society not only for repressive mechanisms (armed forces, police) but also for institutions of unmediated popular sovereignty (people/citizens, social movements).
Four months after European elections, a strong electoral surge can be seen building in favor of the main opposition party as a consequence of: 1) the momentum of the election result, 2) widespread disapproval of the taxation policy being implemented and 3) the repeated failures of government propaganda. The significant electoral rise of SYRIZA, +5% compared to July, has elevated the main opposition party to voter support levels of around 36%, which would correspond to 146 seats in parliament (with a lower estimate of 142 and upper estimate of 150 seats).