Analysis
byYIANNIS MAVRIS
Defeat and standstill
The Communist Party of Greece (KKE) does not figure among the political forces that have been strengthened during the turbulent four years of the Memorandum. Having consolidated its position during the 2004-2007 election cycle, thanks to the gradual waning of PASOK, its fortunes again declined at the beginning of the crisis, due to the sudden collapse of New Democracy and the unexpected rebound of George Papandreou in elections in 2009. KKE’s electoral strength fell from 8.2% in parliamentary elections in 2007, to 7.5%, with a loss of 67,000 votes(figure 1).
However, the social unrest caused by the Memorandum from Spring 2010 served to strengthen the party’s appeal within Greek society throughout 2011 and even more so following the appointment of the Papademos government and the enactment of the second Memorandum(figure 2).Up to Spring 2012, KKE ‘remained in the game’, seeking in its own way to represent those social forces that were protesting in a fragmented and ineffective manner. Thus, in the first elections of 2012 (in May), KKE managed to preserve the electoral appeal it had built during the previous five years, indeed increasing its strength relative to the last parliamentary elections (8.5% – 536,000 votes).
Historic defeat
But things would be different in June. In the conditions of polarization created following the collapse of the two-party system in Greece in the first elections of 2012 and the precipitous rise of SYRIZA, KKE lost 27% of those who had voted for the party in May (over 1 in 4), who in the repeat elections opted to vote for SYRIZA.
The outcome of the battle for primacy on the Left was a crushing defeat for KKE. The electoral trouncing suffered by KKE in June 2012 was the worst in the four decades since the restoration of democracy; a defeat that was even heavier than in the elections of 1993, which came in the wake of the collapse of real socialism. Polling just 4.5%, the party managed to garner 277,000 votes, when in the landmark year of 1993 it had survived with 313,000 votes (also 4.5%). In just one month, it had lost a total of 259,000 voters, i.e. 48% of its electoral strength in May.
The electoral map in June shows in detail (at the administrative level of municipalities following the Capodistrias reform) the traditional areas of communist voter support, where it managed to survive electorally, such as the islands of the Aegean and the Ionian (figure 3).The reasons given for their vote(figure 4)and the ideological self-placement of the party’s voters(figure 5)are indicative, not only of the ideological cohesion of the party formation, but also of KKE’s social entrenchment.
Following its defeat in June and during the 12 months since the elections, KKE has essentially not managed to rebound, although for several months the party has followed a slow but steadily continuing slightly upward course, at the expense of SYRIZA. As a result, its electoral support has increased by 1.5-2%, relative to the elections (6% in PI’s most recent survey in June). The strengthening of KKE has been seen primarily in urban centers (+2.5%), among private sector employees (+4.5%) and the unemployed (+3%).
Lastly, it should be noted that the change of leadership that took place, following the departure of the party’s general secretary, Aleka Papariga, after 22 years and her replacement by Dimitris Koutsoumbas, so far does not appear to have had a favorable impact on KKE’s standing and social appeal. So, in the case of KKE, the rule that political parties tend to be strengthened in such cases does not appear to apply.
Date of publication: 29/06/2013
Publication: Newspaper “ΕΦΗΜΕΡΙΔΑ ΤΩΝ ΣΥΝΤΑΚΤΩΝ”